NOSaints
0-3
19
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
7 mph
31
BUFBills
3-0
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
6
3
19
Bills
14
0
7
10
31
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
356
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
4.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
109
191
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.22
Rushing Yards
189
165
Rush Attempts
35
32
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.60
-1.34
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-3.56
-3.72
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
41
55
Penalty EPA
-7.72
-2.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+346
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-45.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
24
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U