NOSaints
0-3
19
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
7 mph
31
BUFBills
3-0
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
6
3
19
Bills
14
0
7
10
31
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
356
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
4.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
109
191
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.22
Rushing Yards
189
165
Rush Attempts
35
32
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.60
-1.34
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-3.56
-3.72
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
41
55
Penalty EPA
-7.72
-2.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+344
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-45.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
17
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U