NOSaints
6-2
47
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
2 mph
10
BUFBills
5-3
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
20
10
47
Bills
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
482
198
Total Plays
73
45
Yards / Play
6.6
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.34
Passing Yards
--
129
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.32
Rushing Yards
298
69
Rush Attempts
48
15
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
10
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
20
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
71%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.10
-5.52
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.83
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
41
56
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-9.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
3
15
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
6
16
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
13
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U