NOSaints
5-9
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
6°F
27 mph
10
CLEBrowns
6-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
6°F
27 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
14
0
17
Browns
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
32
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
249
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
4.5
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
125
Comp/Att
8/15(53%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.50
Rushing Yards
152
124
Rush Attempts
39
34
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.78
-6.64
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-3.19
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
45
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+38.8
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.5
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U