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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ browns week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
5-9
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
6°F
27 mph
10
CLEBrowns
6-8
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
6°F
27 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
14
0
17
Browns
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

NO logo
+3

Total

UNDER
32

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
244
249
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
4.5
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
125
Comp/Att
8/15(53%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.50
Rushing Yards
152
124
Rush Attempts
39
34
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.78
-6.64
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-3.19
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
45
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+38.8
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
-3.3
26
10/16
-2.2
35
10/20
4.7
84
10/30
2.8
74
11/07
-5.2
17
11/13
-6.3
12
11/20
5.1
85
11/27
0.1
54
12/05
1.1
60
12/18
-2.9
29
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
13.3
99
11/26
5.7
81
12/06
0.9
51
12/13
-3.2
23
12/20
5.8
82
12/27
7.9
91
01/03
2.4
63
12/04
-5.3
15
12/11
1.4
62
12/17
-2.2
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Saints logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Browns logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
20
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/30
24
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/13
-10
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
O
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/05
-1
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-2
L
L
O
10/16
-23
L
L
O
10/23
-3
L
W
U
10/31
19
W
W
P
11/13
-22
L
L
O
11/20
-8
L
L
O
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
13
W
W
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
W
U