NOSaints
1-0
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
8 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
0-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
0
3
3
16
Buccaneers
7
0
0
1
8
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
273
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.21
Passing Yards
296
113
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
9/22(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.46
Rushing Yards
75
160
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.31
-11.21
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-12
Sack EPA
-2.86
-5.30
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
118
Penalty EPA
-4.30
+1.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U