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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
1-0
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
8 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
0-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
0
3
3
16
Buccaneers
7
0
0
1
8

Spread

TB logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
371
273
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.21
Passing Yards
296
113
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
9/22(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.46
Rushing Yards
75
160
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.31
-11.21
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-12
Sack EPA
-2.86
-5.30
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
118
Penalty EPA
-4.30
+1.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
11/05
3.9
74
11/11
4.4
78
11/18
5.5
84
11/25
-1.5
39
11/29
-7.8
7
12/09
0.2
51
12/16
7.9
92
12/23
13.0
99
12/30
8.4
93
09/08
4.5
81
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
11/04
3.4
72
11/11
2.7
67
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
-0.4
47
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-3.5
27
12/16
-9.7
2
12/23
-7.0
9
12/30
-1.4
39
09/08
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
15
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20

EPA

EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
24
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
22
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
15
W
W
U
11/11
4
W
W
O
11/18
21
W
W
U
11/25
-10
L
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-25
L
L
O
12/16
41
W
W
U
12/23
3
W
W
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
10
W
W
O
11/18
6
W
W
O
11/25
-1
L
P
U
12/02
-8
L
W
O
12/09
-2
L
L
U
12/16
-41
L
L
U
12/23
-15
L
L
U
12/30
5
W
W
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U