NOSaints
3-2
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
9 mph
6
TBBuccaneers
3-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
7
7
31
Buccaneers
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
277
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
7.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
235
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
27/48(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.08
Rushing Yards
212
42
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
6.6
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
14
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
75%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.51
-4.58
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-0.23
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-9.11
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
-125.9
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U