NOSaints
4-1
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
11 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
3
7
20
Buccaneers
3
17
3
3
26
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
420
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.19
Rushing Yards
70
117
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.56
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
64
Penalty EPA
-5.43
-6.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
-45.9
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U