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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 6, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
4-1
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
11 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
3
7
20
Buccaneers
3
17
3
3
26

Spread

TB logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
453
420
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.19
Rushing Yards
70
117
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.56
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
64
Penalty EPA
-5.43
-6.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-145
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
-47.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
2.6
66
12/27
1.9
61
01/02
-3.5
26
01/08
8.7
95
09/08
9.7
96
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
1.8
59
12/26
9.9
97
01/02
4.7
81
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
1.1
60
09/25
0.1
52
10/03
5.4
83
10/09
-7.9
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
5
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
17
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
18
W
W
U
12/19
-6
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/02
-10
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
O
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-4
L
L
O
12/12
1
W
P
U
12/19
-3
L
L
P
12/26
23
W
W
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
L
O
10/09
-45
L
L
O