NOSaints
1-4
35
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
8 mph
28
TBBuccaneers
2-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
21
0
7
35
Buccaneers
14
7
0
7
28
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
513
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
7.3
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
411
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.52
Rushing Yards
81
102
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-3.94
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-9.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model58.4%
Spread Pick
Saints-1.5
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+18.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
+9.5
Final Difference
-58.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
9
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U