NOSaints
9-0
38
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
8 mph
7
TBBuccaneers
1-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
14
7
38
Buccaneers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
219
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.7
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
100
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.64
Rushing Yards
183
119
Rush Attempts
36
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.59
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-7.24
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
55
18
Penalty EPA
-3.03
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-212
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+29.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
+11.1
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
24
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U