NOSaints
4-8
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
2 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
5-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
3
3
16
Buccaneers
3
0
0
14
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
350
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
5.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
232
274
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
36/54(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
66
76
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.72
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-3.44
-1.40
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
84
39
Penalty EPA
-8.40
-5.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.7
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
24
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U