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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 13, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
4-8
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
2 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
5-6
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
3
3
16
Buccaneers
3
0
0
14
17

Spread

NO logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
298
350
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
5.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
232
274
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
36/54(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
66
76
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.72
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-3.44
-1.40
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
84
39
Penalty EPA
-8.40
-5.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+28.8
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Value
Ptile
01/09
-5.6
16
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
-3.3
26
10/16
-2.2
35
10/20
4.7
84
10/30
2.8
74
11/07
-5.2
17
11/13
-6.3
12
11/20
5.1
85
11/27
0.1
54
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
09/18
-2.1
36
09/25
2.4
72
10/02
9.9
96
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
10/23
1.3
61
10/27
-0.4
50
11/06
3.2
76
11/13
2.8
74
11/27
1.8
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
24
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-8
L
L
U
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/30
24
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/13
-10
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
O
11/27
-13
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
5
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
U