NOSaints
6-9
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
2-13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
14
21
Buccaneers
3
17
0
0
20
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
280
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.01
Passing Yards
268
97
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.02
Rushing Yards
70
183
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.85
-4.01
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-2.62
-3.32
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
23
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-4.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-156
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-18.5
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U