nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 18, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NO logo
NOSaints
5-11
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
9-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
13
3
0
19
Buccaneers
3
3
7
14
27

Spread

NO logo
+14.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
292
395
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
228
216
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.29
Rushing Yards
64
179
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.52
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-5
Sack EPA
-2.78
-0.92
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
77
90
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-5.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+335
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+125.2
Home QB Adjustment
+40.0
Away QB Adjustment
-85.2
Market Regression
+26.2
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

S. Rattler headshot

S. Rattler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-85.2
Value
Ptile
10/13
-8.0
5
10/17
-3.8
23
10/27
-6.9
9
12/23
-7.0
8
12/29
-4.0
22
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+40.0
Value
Ptile
10/21
4.7
78
10/27
5.9
84
11/04
3.3
71
11/10
-2.8
29
11/24
8.5
94
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
12/15
9.2
95
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
10
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
24
12
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
4
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
11/03
-1
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
3
W
L
U
12/15
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-34
L
L
U
12/29
-15
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/24
23
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O