NOSaints
5-11
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
9-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
13
3
0
19
Buccaneers
3
3
7
14
27
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
395
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
228
216
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.29
Rushing Yards
64
179
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.52
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-5
Sack EPA
-2.78
-0.92
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
77
90
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-5.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+335
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+125.3
Home QB Adjustment
+39.9
Away QB Adjustment
-85.3
Market Regression
+26.2
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-85.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+39.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
24
12
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U