NOSaints
3-1
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
2-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
3
0
7
20
Cardinals
0
10
3
5
18
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
194
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
5.8
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.09
Passing Yards
273
153
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.03
Rushing Yards
85
41
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.26
-4.34
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-21
Sack EPA
-1.55
-0.92
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
45
20
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-1.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.2%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-130
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-66.2
Home QB Adjustment
-49.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-165.5
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
M. Hall
Proj. Value
-5.7
Team Elo Adj
-49.4
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
21
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U