NOSaints
2-4
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
042
ARICardinals
2-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
17
34
Cardinals
3
13
7
7
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
494
330
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
7.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
191
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
85
139
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.77
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.54
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
49
20
Penalty EPA
-6.49
-3.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+40.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-39.3
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-39.3
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U