NOSaints
2-4
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
021
INDColts
3-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
13
7
0
27
Colts
0
0
14
7
21
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
376
Total Plays
83
61
Yards / Play
5.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.18
Passing Yards
266
301
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.21
Rushing Yards
183
75
Rush Attempts
36
13
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
35%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.17
-13.35
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-32
Sack EPA
-3.40
-6.75
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
100
42
Penalty EPA
-11.50
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
Saints+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
-0.1
Final Difference
109.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
14
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U