NOSaints
15-3
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
6 mph
17
INDColts
16-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
10
9
25
Colts
10
0
7
0
17
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
432
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.07
Passing Yards
283
--
Comp/Att
32/40(80%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.18
Rushing Yards
51
99
Rush Attempts
18
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.74
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.89
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
19
45
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-4.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model55.6%
Spread Pick
Saints+4.5
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
38.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
7
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U