nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ colts week 21, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NO logo
NOSaints
15-3
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
6 mph
17
INDColts
16-2
IND logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
10
9
25
Colts
10
0
7
0
17

Spread

NO logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
56.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
334
432
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.07
Passing Yards
283
--
Comp/Att
32/40(80%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.18
Rushing Yards
51
99
Rush Attempts
18
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.74
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.89
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
19
45
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model55.6%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
38.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Value
Ptile
11/08
4.4
79
11/15
0.1
50
11/22
5.5
85
11/30
14.0
99
12/06
9.7
96
12/13
9.2
95
12/19
-0.0
49
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
11/15
6.5
87
11/22
3.0
69
11/29
2.8
68
12/06
3.4
73
12/13
-1.0
44
12/17
8.3
93
12/27
2.7
67
01/03
-1.3
41
01/16
3.3
71
01/24
10.3
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Saints logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
7
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Colts logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
27
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
2
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
5
W
L
O
11/22
31
W
W
U
11/30
21
W
W
U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
1
W
P
O
11/22
2
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
O
12/17
4
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
O
01/03
-23
L
L
O
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/24
13
W
W
O