NOSaints
11-0
33
TBD
FedExField
36°F
9 mph
30
WASCommanders
3-8
TBD
FedExField
36°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
0
17
3
10
3
33
Commanders
10
7
10
3
0
30
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
455
Total Plays
74
67
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.26
Passing Yards
408
--
Comp/Att
35/49(71%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.44
Rushing Yards
55
88
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
21
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
43%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+8.48
-6.84
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.51
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
102
15
Penalty EPA
-7.08
-0.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-197
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,702
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
5
26
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
8
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U