NOSaints
1-2
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
038
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
3
14
17
Cowboys
7
17
7
7
38
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
445
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
7.4
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.27
Passing Yards
334
255
Comp/Att
32/44(73%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.50
Rushing Yards
104
190
Rush Attempts
13
35
Yards / Rush
8.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.03
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-3.73
-1.98
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
8
19
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
28
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U