NOSaints
7-3
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
3-7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
17
3
3
7
30
Cowboys
0
6
14
7
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
457
Total Plays
62
75
Yards / Play
6.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.09
Passing Yards
333
313
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.10
Rushing Yards
81
144
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-2.98
-2.06
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.01
-0.02
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
19
Penalty EPA
-3.16
-2.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-79.8
Home QB Adjustment
-72.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
-51.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-72.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U