NOSaints
6-8
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
8-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
7
10
7
7
3
34
Cowboys
0
14
3
14
0
31
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
562
446
Total Plays
91
56
Yards / Play
6.2
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
406
Comp/Att
37/53(70%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.57
+0.40
Rushing Yards
116
40
Rush Attempts
38
11
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
18
Passing 1st downs
25
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
58%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
11
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.53
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-4.18
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
32
Penalty EPA
--
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
24
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
28
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
24
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U