NOSaints
1-2
20
TBD
Wembley Stadium
63°F
13 mph
0
MIADolphins
1-1
TBD
Wembley Stadium
63°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
7
10
20
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
186
Total Plays
70
47
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.34
Passing Yards
261
128
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.34
Rushing Yards
86
58
Rush Attempts
28
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.24
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-36
Sack EPA
-2.00
-6.33
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
71
90
Penalty EPA
-8.19
-8.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+4.0
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+9.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-29.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.9
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-78.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U