NOSaints
5-0
46
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
2 mph
34
MIADolphins
2-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
8
16
34
Dolphins
14
10
10
0
34
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
334
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.19
Passing Yards
276
197
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.52
Rushing Yards
138
137
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.37
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.25
-15.69
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-22
-14
Sack EPA
-8.06
-2.25
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
+1.95
-8.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+6.5
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-44.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
-131.5
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
4
8
Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
30
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-2-5
O/U