NOSaints
5-4
29
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
4 mph
40
PHIEagles
4-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
22
29
Eagles
14
7
6
7
34
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
380
Total Plays
63
77
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
138
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
109
242
Rush Attempts
22
50
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
13
21
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-18.06
-5.54
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-3.19
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
49
Penalty EPA
--
-5.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+72.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-58.8
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-58.8
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
8
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U