NOSaints
6-9
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
11 mph
10
PHIEagles
13-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
6
0
1
14
Eagles
0
0
10
0
10
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
313
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
4.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.38
Passing Yards
184
246
Comp/Att
20/24(83%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.35
Rushing Yards
129
67
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
11
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.24
-6.70
Sacks
7
6
Sack Yards
-45
-28
Sack EPA
-11.47
-7.40
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
49
Penalty EPA
--
-6.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+63.8
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-40.6
Home QB Adjustment
-60.0
Away QB Adjustment
-19.4
Market Regression
-45.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-60.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
29
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
9
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U