NOSaints
11-5
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
25°F
5 mph
24
PHIEagles
10-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
25°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
14
6
26
Eagles
0
7
7
10
24
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
256
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.07
Passing Yards
249
176
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.03
Rushing Yards
185
80
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.75
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-1
-19
Sack EPA
-0.90
-2.99
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
85
38
Penalty EPA
-8.88
-5.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
4
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U