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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ eagles week 18, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
11-5
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
25°F
5 mph
24
PHIEagles
10-6
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
25°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
14
6
26
Eagles
0
7
7
10
24

Spread

NO logo
+3

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
434
256
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.07
Passing Yards
249
176
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.03
Rushing Yards
185
80
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.75
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-1
-19
Sack EPA
-0.90
-2.99
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
85
38
Penalty EPA
-8.88
-5.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99
11/17
3.4
73
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50
12/08
9.5
95
12/15
3.2
72
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
-9.6
4
11/03
16.9
100
11/10
3.9
77
11/17
3.9
77
12/01
1.3
60
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Saints logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
15
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Eagles logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
4
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
2
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
13
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U
12/08
18
W
W
U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
-8
L
L
U
11/03
29
W
W
O
11/10
14
W
W
U
11/17
8
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U