NOSaints
6-3
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
5-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
3
7
7
6
3
26
Falcons
3
3
7
10
0
23
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
481
Total Plays
59
85
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
343
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
29/52(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.03
Rushing Yards
41
138
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
30
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.91
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.49
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
79
85
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model45.4%
Spread Pick
Saints+1.0
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-4.7
Final Difference
-31.9
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
13
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U