nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NO logo
NOSaints
6-3
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
23
ATLFalcons
5-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
3
7
7
6
3
26
Falcons
3
3
7
10
0
23

Spread

NO logo
+1

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
363
481
Total Plays
59
85
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
343
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
29/52(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.03
Rushing Yards
41
138
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
18
30
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.91
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.49
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
79
85
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-5.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model45.8%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
-29.5
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
01/08
8.7
95
09/08
9.7
96
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
12.3
98
10/30
-5.3
17
11/06
6.8
90
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
5.2
84
01/15
-5.1
18
09/11
-2.5
34
09/18
-1.8
37
09/25
-1.3
42
10/02
6.1
86
10/09
-4.2
24
10/16
2.0
66
10/23
-3.1
31
11/06
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7

EPA

EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11

EPA

EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
13
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-5
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
O
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
55
W
W
O
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/06
11
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
21
W
W
P
01/15
-27
L
L
O
09/11
-18
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
2
W
L
O
10/09
-11
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
24
W
W
U