NOSaints
10-4
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
014
ATLFalcons
12-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
0
7
17
Falcons
0
7
0
1
8
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
215
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.26
Passing Yards
296
140
Comp/Att
35/49(71%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.12
Rushing Yards
72
75
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.59
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-13.54
-9.23
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-0.93
-2.03
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
92
--
Penalty EPA
-8.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
26.1
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
21
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-2-1
O/U