NOSaints
7-8
32
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
038
ATLFalcons
10-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
3
0
19
32
Falcons
14
21
3
0
38
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
58.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
465
Total Plays
77
59
Yards / Play
6.1
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.26
Passing Yards
341
323
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.50
Rushing Yards
132
142
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.30
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-8
Sack EPA
-2.13
-2.73
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
70
63
Penalty EPA
-6.08
-9.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
Saints+7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
+18.0
Final Difference
173.6
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
18
17
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U