NOSaints
2-1
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
10
JAXJaguars
1-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
6
3
23
Jaguars
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
503
274
Total Plays
81
62
Yards / Play
6.2
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.21
Passing Yards
326
170
Comp/Att
31/44(70%)
16/42(38%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.37
Rushing Yards
177
104
Rush Attempts
34
17
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
15
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.71
-2.70
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-26
Sack EPA
-4.56
-5.09
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
50
15
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+8.5
Expected Value
+20.4%
Cover Probability
63.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+30.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
-6.8
Final Difference
-137.6
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
5
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Jaguars Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
11
11
EPA
EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U