NOSaints
1-2
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
029
DETLions
1-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
21
7
0
35
Lions
14
0
7
8
29
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
283
Total Plays
69
57
Yards / Play
5.7
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.11
Passing Yards
228
193
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.07
Rushing Yards
164
90
Rush Attempts
42
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
71%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.88
-6.23
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-4.02
-5.32
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
49
Penalty EPA
--
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
Saints-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-163
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
-117.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U