NOSaints
2-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
4-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
7
6
23
Lions
0
3
7
14
24
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
344
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.08
Passing Yards
335
285
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.10
Rushing Yards
73
59
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.20
-12.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.73
-3.78
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
134
71
Penalty EPA
-18.01
-8.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-1.0
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
6
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U