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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ lions week 7, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
2-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
24
DETLions
4-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
7
6
23
Lions
0
3
7
14
24

Spread

NO logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
408
344
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.08
Passing Yards
335
285
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.10
Rushing Yards
73
59
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.20
-12.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.73
-3.78
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
134
71
Penalty EPA
-18.01
-8.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-5.8
Final Difference
0.4
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
12/15
3.2
72
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
12/08
-5.3
18
12/16
-4.9
19
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Saints logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
7
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
6
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Lions logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
24
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
15
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-14
L
L
P
12/16
-2
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U