NOSaints
-
34
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
5 mph
42
GBPackers
-
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
4
10
7
28
Packers
21
7
7
7
42
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
477
399
Total Plays
73
64
Yards / Play
6.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.34
Passing Yards
396
296
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.59
Rushing Yards
81
103
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
24
Passing 1st downs
20
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
64%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.49
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-16
Sack EPA
-4.90
-3.45
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
15
48
Penalty EPA
-1.14
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
6
17
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
29
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U