NOSaints
0-3
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
7 mph
28
GBPackers
1-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
10
3
27
Packers
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
421
Total Plays
75
66
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.27
Passing Yards
429
--
Comp/Att
35/54(65%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.44
Rushing Yards
45
102
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
30
Passing 1st downs
23
21
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.21
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.02
--
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
72
43
Penalty EPA
-8.32
-7.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
Saints+7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-19.1
Final Difference
173.9
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
13
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
8
19
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U