NOSaints
5-9
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
12 mph
34
GBPackers
10-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
7
14
3
10
34
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
404
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
3.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.30
Passing Yards
129
--
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.20
Rushing Yards
67
188
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.83
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-7.65
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+357
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+92.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-87.8
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-87.8
Value
Ptile
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U