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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ packers week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-9
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
12 mph
34
GBPackers
10-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
7
14
3
10
34

Spread

GB logo
-14

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
196
404
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
3.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.30
Passing Yards
129
--
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.20
Rushing Yards
67
188
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.83
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-7.65
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-2.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+359
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+92.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-87.7
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

S. Rattler headshot

S. Rattler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-87.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
-8.0
5
10/17
-3.8
23
10/27
-6.9
9
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
4.0
75
11/24
-0.3
48
11/28
6.6
88
12/05
0.6
52
12/15
4.9
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Saints logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
10
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Packers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30

EPA

EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
8
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
10
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-13
L
L
U
10/13
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
11/03
-1
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
3
W
L
U
12/15
-1
L
W
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U
11/24
28
W
W
O
11/28
13
W
W
U
12/05
-3
L
P
O
12/15
17
W
W
U