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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
0-1
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
4 mph
35
CARPanthers
0-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
3
0
14
27
Panthers
1
14
7
7
29

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

OVER
53

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
486
463
Total Plays
77
62
Yards / Play
6.3
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.29
Passing Yards
323
244
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
12.2
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.70
Rushing Yards
163
219
Rush Attempts
27
41
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.44
-3.15
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-9
Sack EPA
-0.89
-1.33
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
23
34
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-1.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
11/13
8.2
94
11/28
13.9
99
12/04
8.7
95
12/11
7.9
93
12/18
15.9
100
12/26
4.8
81
01/01
13.9
99
01/07
11.6
98
01/14
8.7
95
09/09
-1.2
41
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
7.0
90
11/13
-4.7
20
11/20
1.7
64
11/27
2.5
70
12/04
7.4
92
12/11
-1.1
43
12/18
4.3
78
12/24
9.0
96
01/01
-2.5
33
09/09
-2.3
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
12
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32

EPA

EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
6
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/28
25
W
W
O
12/04
14
W
W
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
22
W
W
O
12/26
29
W
W
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/07
17
W
W
O
01/14
-4
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-27
L
L
U
11/20
-14
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
19
W
W
O
12/11
-8
L
L
O
12/18
15
W
W
U
12/24
32
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-6
L
L
U