NOSaints
0-1
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
4 mph
35
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
3
0
14
27
Panthers
1
14
7
7
29
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
486
463
Total Plays
77
62
Yards / Play
6.3
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.29
Passing Yards
323
244
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
12.2
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.70
Rushing Yards
163
219
Rush Attempts
27
41
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.44
-3.15
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-9
Sack EPA
-0.89
-1.33
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
23
34
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-1.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U