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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
5-3
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
7 mph
3
CARPanthers
1-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
4
7
28
Panthers
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

NO logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
408
195
Total Plays
76
64
Yards / Play
5.4
3.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.48
Passing Yards
243
68
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
17/36(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
1.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.82
Rushing Yards
165
127
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
14
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
50%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.81
-11.99
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-39
Sack EPA
-1.90
-8.43
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
64
65
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-10.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94
09/09
3.5
72
09/20
5.7
86
09/26
7.2
91
10/03
4.1
76
10/10
-1.3
42
10/17
5.9
87
10/24
-2.0
37
10/31
5.9
87
M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
12/30
1.4
61
12/06
-2.6
34
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
3.7
73
01/03
-0.8
45
09/12
-11.0
2
09/19
-7.7
8
10/24
5.5
85
10/31
-6.3
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
32
10
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18

EPA

EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
32
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/26
-3
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/24
-13
L
L
O
10/31
10
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
19
W
W
U
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
13
W
W
U
09/12
-13
L
L
O
09/19
-13
L
L
U
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-17
L
L
U
10/24
3
W
W
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U