NOSaints
5-3
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
7 mph
3
CARPanthers
1-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
4
7
28
Panthers
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
195
Total Plays
76
64
Yards / Play
5.4
3.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.48
Passing Yards
243
68
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
17/36(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
1.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.82
Rushing Yards
165
127
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
14
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
50%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.81
-11.99
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-39
Sack EPA
-1.90
-8.43
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
64
65
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-10.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
10
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U