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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
3-4
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
3 mph
10
CARPanthers
3-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
7
7
28
Panthers
0
0
7
3
10

Spread

NO logo
-3

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
375
231
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.20
Passing Yards
270
122
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
10/28(36%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.63
Rushing Yards
105
109
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
17
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.56
-9.00
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-29
Sack EPA
-9.69
-9.02
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-6.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
+57.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+57.8
Value
Ptile
12/22
-5.7
16
12/29
0.3
52
01/12
-2.4
37
09/14
1.1
58
09/21
0.9
56
09/28
-1.4
40
10/05
-1.5
39
10/12
12.3
99
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
1
W
L
U
01/12
-13
L
L
U
09/07
6
W
W
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/21
-18
L
L
O
09/28
-28
L
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/12
0
T
W
O
10/19
-21
L
L
O
10/26
-4
L
W
U