NOSaints
3-4
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
3 mph
10
CARPanthers
3-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
7
7
28
Panthers
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
231
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.20
Passing Yards
270
122
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
10/28(36%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.63
Rushing Yards
105
109
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
17
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.56
-9.00
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-29
Sack EPA
-9.69
-9.02
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-6.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
+57.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-39.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+57.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U