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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
10-4
13
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
18 mph
17
CARPanthers
10-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
7
13
Panthers
0
7
3
7
17

Spread

CAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
365
222
Total Plays
81
44
Yards / Play
4.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.08
Passing Yards
239
141
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.28
Rushing Yards
126
81
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
28%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.59
-3.63
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-42
-40
Sack EPA
-9.73
-7.00
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-3.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99
11/17
3.4
73
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50
12/08
9.5
95
12/15
3.2
72
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
2.1
65
10/24
5.3
84
11/03
0.3
52
11/10
-7.5
10
11/18
6.8
89
11/24
-0.5
47
12/01
6.9
90
12/08
-1.4
43
12/15
1.4
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
15
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
14
28
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U
12/08
18
W
W
U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
15
W
W
O
10/24
18
W
W
O
11/03
24
W
W
U
11/10
1
W
W
U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
21
W
W
U
12/08
-18
L
L
U
12/15
10
W
P
O