NOSaints
10-4
13
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
18 mph
17
CARPanthers
10-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
7
13
Panthers
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
222
Total Plays
81
44
Yards / Play
4.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.08
Passing Yards
239
141
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.28
Rushing Yards
126
81
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
28%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.59
-3.63
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-42
-40
Sack EPA
-9.73
-7.00
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
15
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
14
28
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U