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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
13-2
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
30°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
7-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
30°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
7
0
10
Panthers
7
10
6
0
23

Spread

CAR logo
-10

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
213
327
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
3.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.03
Rushing Yards
111
178
Rush Attempts
32
37
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.95
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-4.65
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-2.69
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model75.9%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.7%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+141.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-144.6
Market Regression
+37.2
Final Difference
199.7
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

M. Brunell headshot

M. Brunell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-144.6
Value
Ptile
01/14
2.6
70
09/11
0.9
55
09/17
-6.7
9
09/24
6.6
90
10/01
8.1
95
10/08
-5.5
15
10/15
-1.6
40
10/22
4.8
82
11/05
2.3
66
11/12
-3.5
27
M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
3.9
77
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
1.4
61
12/06
-2.6
34
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
3.7
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
7
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
8
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
18
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
12
W
W
O
11/02
8
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
5
W
L
O
11/22
31
W
W
U
11/30
21
W
W
U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/01
13
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
9
W
W
O
11/19
-7
L
L
U
11/29
-11
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
-10
L
W
U
12/20
19
W
W
U
12/27
32
W
W
O