NOSaints
13-2
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
30°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
7-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
30°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
7
0
10
Panthers
7
10
6
0
23
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
327
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
3.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.03
Rushing Yards
111
178
Rush Attempts
32
37
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.95
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-4.65
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-2.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model75.9%
Spread Pick
Saints+10.0
Expected Value
+11.7%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+141.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-144.6
Market Regression
+37.3
Final Difference
199.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Brunell
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-144.6
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U