NOSaints
5-0
27
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph
30
NEPatriots
4-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
10
10
27
Patriots
3
14
3
10
30
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
376
Total Plays
63
83
Yards / Play
5.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
230
235
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.10
Rushing Yards
131
141
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-1.66
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-34
Sack EPA
-1.55
-7.20
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
56
--
Penalty EPA
-6.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.6
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
5
28
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
18
13
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U