NOSaints
4-5
38
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
3 mph
17
OAKRaiders
3-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
8
7
14
3
32
Raiders
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
404
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
284
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.13
Rushing Yards
151
120
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
55%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.99
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-28
Sack EPA
--
-3.19
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
109
40
Penalty EPA
-1.04
-4.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
Raiders+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
-106.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
8
30
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U