NOSaints
5-2
21
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
031
LARRams
0-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
1
14
15
Rams
0
17
7
1
25
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
323
Total Plays
70
72
Yards / Play
4.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.07
Passing Yards
227
140
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.18
Rushing Yards
56
183
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.82
-6.31
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-42
-35
Sack EPA
-8.94
-10.96
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
32
64
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-296
Home nfelo
1,356
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-59.5
Home QB Adjustment
-36.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.7
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
-318.3
Model Spread
+13.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
A. Feeley
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-36.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
12
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
3-6-1
O/U