NOSaints
10-3
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
027
LARRams
5-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
0
13
16
Rams
14
10
3
0
27
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
302
Total Plays
81
54
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.11
Passing Yards
371
--
Comp/Att
39/56(70%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.42
Rushing Yards
61
144
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
17
Passing 1st downs
24
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
29%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.31
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-7.92
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
30
Penalty EPA
-9.54
-2.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.4
Home QB Adjustment
-56.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-56.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
22
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
27
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U