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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ rams week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
10-3
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
27
LARRams
5-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
0
13
16
Rams
14
10
3
0
27

Spread

LAR logo
+7

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
432
302
Total Plays
81
54
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.11
Passing Yards
371
--
Comp/Att
39/56(70%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.42
Rushing Yards
61
144
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
30
17
Passing 1st downs
24
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
29%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.31
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-7.92
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
30
Penalty EPA
-9.54
-2.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.4
Home QB Adjustment
-56.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99
11/17
3.4
73
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50
12/08
9.5
95
K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-56.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
11/10
0.9
56
11/24
-3.9
25
12/01
-3.0
32
12/08
-7.7
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Saints logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9

EPA

EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
22
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Rams logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
27
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U
12/08
18
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
12/08
-20
L
L
U