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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ seahawks week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
0-2
13
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
3 mph
44
SEASeahawks
1-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
7
13
Seahawks
15
17
6
0
38

Spread

SEA logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
284
320
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.22
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.77
Rushing Yards
79
87
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.63
-4.25
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-0.74
--
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
77
70
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-6.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

S. Rattler headshot

S. Rattler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Value
Ptile
10/13
-8.0
5
10/17
-3.8
23
10/27
-6.9
9
12/23
-7.0
8
12/29
-4.1
22
01/05
-1.0
42
09/07
-1.0
43
09/14
3.5
75
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
11/24
3.0
70
12/01
-0.6
46
12/08
7.2
91
12/16
-2.7
30
12/22
2.1
64
12/29
7.9
92
01/05
-8.0
5
01/13
-8.9
4
09/07
-1.3
40
09/14
-0.4
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Saints logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
31
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Seahawks logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23

EPA

EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
18
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
3
W
L
U
12/15
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-34
L
L
U
12/29
-15
L
L
U
01/05
-8
L
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
3
W
W
U
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/01
5
W
W
O
12/08
12
W
W
O
12/15
-17
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/26
3
W
L
U
01/05
5
W
L
O
09/07
-4
L
L
U
09/14
14
W
W
O