NOSaints
0-2
13
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
3 mph
44
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
7
13
Seahawks
15
17
6
0
38
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
320
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.22
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.77
Rushing Yards
79
87
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.63
-4.25
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-0.74
--
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
77
70
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-6.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+38.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
29
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U