NOSaints
9-2
7
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
6 mph
34
SEASeahawks
10-1
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
0
7
Seahawks
11
10
7
0
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
188
429
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
3.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.20
Passing Yards
144
302
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.65
Rushing Yards
44
127
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.57
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-8
Sack EPA
-6.57
-2.12
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
52
66
Penalty EPA
-7.16
-9.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+102.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+39.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U