NOSaints
11-5
36
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
8 mph
41
SEASeahawks
7-9
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
10
0
16
36
Seahawks
7
17
10
7
41
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
415
Total Plays
84
61
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.27
Passing Yards
397
265
Comp/Att
39/60(65%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.21
Rushing Yards
77
150
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
19
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
57%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-5.54
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.36
-2.11
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
39
39
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-189
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-222.5
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
21
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
20
32
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U