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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ seahawks week 18, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
11-5
36
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
8 mph
41
SEASeahawks
7-9
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
40°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
10
0
16
36
Seahawks
7
17
10
7
41

Spread

SEA logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
474
415
Total Plays
84
61
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.27
Passing Yards
397
265
Comp/Att
39/60(65%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.21
Rushing Yards
77
150
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
32
19
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
57%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-5.54
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.36
-2.11
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
39
39
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-4.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-189
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-222.5
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Value
Ptile
10/24
-2.0
37
10/31
5.9
87
11/07
4.3
77
11/21
9.0
96
11/25
-0.2
47
12/05
5.8
86
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
2.6
66
12/27
1.9
61
01/02
-3.5
26
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Value
Ptile
10/17
2.8
68
10/24
-4.6
19
10/31
-13.8
1
11/14
4.4
79
11/21
10.6
98
11/28
-2.2
34
12/05
-5.3
16
12/12
-2.1
36
12/19
-8.5
6
12/26
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Saints logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21

EPA

EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
21
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Seahawks logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
24
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
20
32
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
26
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-13
L
L
O
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/07
31
W
W
U
11/21
15
W
W
O
11/25
3
W
L
O
12/05
4
W
L
O
12/12
18
W
W
U
12/19
-6
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/02
-10
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-30
L
L
U
11/07
-34
L
L
O
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O
11/28
-18
L
L
O
12/05
17
W
W
O
12/12
-19
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U