NOSaints
12-5
15
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
20 mph
23
SEASeahawks
13-3
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
15
15
Seahawks
6
10
0
7
23
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
277
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
288
103
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.24
Rushing Yards
110
174
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
15
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.38
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.77
-1.10
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
69
52
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-6.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,712
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
+31.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U