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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ steelers week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
3-6
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
15 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-6
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
0
0
10
Steelers
7
3
0
10
20

Spread

PIT logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
186
379
Total Plays
45
79
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.00
Passing Yards
157
162
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.09
Rushing Yards
29
217
Rush Attempts
15
43
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.73
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-37
Sack EPA
-2.34
-8.29
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
74
40
Penalty EPA
-11.04
-2.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-35.5
Away QB Adjustment
-25.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-19.7
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-25.2
Value
Ptile
11/25
-1.1
44
12/05
-7.0
11
01/02
-6.1
14
01/09
-5.6
16
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
-3.3
26
10/16
-2.2
35
10/20
4.7
84
10/30
2.8
74
11/07
-5.2
17
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-35.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.3
61
10/16
-2.5
32
10/23
-2.3
34
10/30
-5.7
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Saints logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9

EPA

EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Steelers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24

EPA

EPA / Play
19
9
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
11
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
10
W
W
O
09/11
1
W
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-8
L
L
U
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/30
24
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
3
W
W
U
01/16
-21
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
W
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/22
-12
L
L
O
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/09
-35
L
L
U
10/16
2
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O