NOSaints
3-6
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
15 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
0
0
10
Steelers
7
3
0
10
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
379
Total Plays
45
79
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.00
Passing Yards
157
162
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.09
Rushing Yards
29
217
Rush Attempts
15
43
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.73
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-37
Sack EPA
-2.34
-8.29
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
74
40
Penalty EPA
-11.04
-2.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model46.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-35.5
Away QB Adjustment
-25.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-21.4
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-25.2
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-35.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
9
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U