NOSaints
4-6
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
5-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
0
6
Texans
14
0
10
0
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
362
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.01
Passing Yards
218
195
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.15
Rushing Yards
50
167
Rush Attempts
10
38
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.22
-4.40
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-10
Sack EPA
-2.64
-1.70
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
82
40
Penalty EPA
-2.17
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+13.6
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-47.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
36.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U