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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ texans week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
4-6
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
24
HOUTexans
5-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
0
0
6
Texans
14
0
10
0
24

Spread

HOU logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
268
362
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.01
Passing Yards
218
195
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.15
Rushing Yards
50
167
Rush Attempts
10
38
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.22
-4.40
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-10
Sack EPA
-2.64
-1.70
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
82
40
Penalty EPA
-2.17
-4.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+13.8
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
36.4
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
12/28
-5.4
18
09/13
1.3
60
09/20
-4.1
21
10/04
6.9
90
10/11
-1.8
37
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
11/06
-0.5
47
11/16
-6.2
15
11/23
-4.8
21
11/30
-4.9
21
12/07
-9.9
3
09/13
-4.9
16
10/18
5.3
83
10/25
-3.8
22
11/01
1.0
57
11/16
-6.2
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Saints logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
14
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Texans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
22
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
14
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-12
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U
09/27
-5
L
W
O
10/04
6
W
W
U
10/11
-22
L
L
O
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/08
-7
L
L
O
10/18
11
W
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
O
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O