NOSaints
5-3
21
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
12 mph
23
TENTitans
7-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
6
9
21
Titans
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
264
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.02
Passing Yards
287
198
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
86
66
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
42%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.75
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-22
-15
Sack EPA
-5.15
-3.76
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
65
49
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-8.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+50.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-62.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
6
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
25
6
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
9
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U