NOSaints
9-3
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
7 mph
17
TENTitans
7-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
3
3
13
22
Titans
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
373
Total Plays
76
55
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
323
314
Comp/Att
36/47(77%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.05
Rushing Yards
114
59
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
58%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
11
1
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-2.87
-4.41
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
95
54
Penalty EPA
-14.17
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+29.8
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.8
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U